Investors spend so much time thinking about the probable that they rarely contemplate the outsized impact of the unlikely. We pore over financial statements, dive deep into economic indicators, and try to assess the result of acquisitions, trade agreements, management changes, and political shifts, but the black swan can fly right past our faces and tear all this careful analysis to shreds. Because it's nearly impossible to predict, the emergence of a black swan -- that rare and unlikely event that changes so much of our world that it can often only be understood in hindsight -- is typically ignored despite the simple fact that such events can do more to our investments than years of steady progress.
As we approach the new year, we confront a world whose future is as unknowable as ever. We may never know whether catastrophe is just around the corner, but what we can do is try to understand the shapes it might take so that we can better prepare ourselves for the impact. And let's not forget that a black swan can, from time to time, lay a golden egg.
Best Construction Material Companies For 2015: NEW GOLD INC.(NGD)
New Gold Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, extraction, processing, and reclamation of mineral properties. The company primarily explore for gold, silver, and copper deposits. Its operating properties include the Mesquite gold mine in the United States; the Cerro San Pedro gold-silver mine in Mexico; and the Peak gold-copper mine in Australia. The company also has development projects, including the New Afton gold, silver, and copper project in Canada; and a 30% interest in the El Morro copper-gold project in Chile. The company was formerly known as DRC Resources Corporation and changed its name to New Gold Inc. in June 2005. New Gold Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Ben Levisohn]
Hamed singles out Goldcorp (GG) and Yamana Gold (AUY) as two companies that have strong production growth, falling costs, declining capital obligations and less debt than competitors. New Gold (NGD), meanwhile, should have the lowest all-on costs in the group at $731 an ounce, but its capital spending is likely to notes, Hamed says. Hamed rates Goldcorp and Yamana Overweight, while New Gold is rated Equal Weight.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Bridges favorite stocks include Goldcorp, Newmont, Eldorado Gold (EGO) and New Gold (NGD).
Note, however, that these recommendations are all qualified in one way or another. Investors should keep that in mind before going all in on the gold miners.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Even bad news has failed to dent the rise in gold stocks today. NewGold (NGD), for instance, has gained 1.8% to $7.49 despite the fact that the wall of one of its mines collapsed. The Wall Street Journal has the details:
Top 5 Gold Companies To Own For 2014: Iamgold Corporation(IAG)
IAMGOLD Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral resource properties worldwide. It primarily explores for gold, silver, zinc, copper, niobium, diamonds, and other metals. The company holds interests in eight operating gold mines, a niobium producer, a diamond royalty, and exploration and development projects located in Africa and the Americas. Its advanced exploration and development projects include the Westwood project in Canada; and the Quimsacocha project, which consists of 3 mining concessions covering an aggregate area of approximately 8,030 hectares in Ecuador. The company was formerly known as IAMGOLD International African Mining Gold Corporation and changed its name to IAMGOLD Corporation in June 1997. IAMGOLD Corporation was founded in 1990 and is based in Toronto, Canada.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Michael Blair]
IAMGOLD (IAG) is one of my favorite gold stocks principally because it is a relatively high cost producer with long lived mines. That paradox arises since high cost producers have the most volatility when gold prices change. If they are operating close to break even, a relatively small rise in gold prices makes them quite profitable. Conversely, when prices fall they bleed all over the floor.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
On an adjusted basis, Eldorado Gold (EGO) has the longest reserve/resource life amongst our coverage companies (39 years) with Goldcorp (GG) having the longest reserve/resource life (23 years) amongst the senior producers versus the group average of 22 years. Kinross Gold (KGC) and Iamgold (IAG) have the shortest adjusted reserve/resource lives amongst the senior and mid-tier producers (18 and 14 years respectively). On a percentage basis, the companies most affected by the adjustment are New Gold (NGD) and Iamgold which both saw reserve/resource lives fall by 47% however, we note that despite the adjustment,�New Gold still has the second longest reserve/resource life in our group (37 years). Newmont Mining was the least affected by the adjustments with reserve/resource life declining by only 12% to 22 years from 25 years.
- [By Dan Caplinger]
Elsewhere, losers were few and far between, but many gold stocks remained under pressure as the yellow metal only managed a modest bounce after yesterday's plunge. In particular, major producer Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX ) and gold miner IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG ) fell between 4% and 5%. Both companies were on the list of holdings of billionaire hedge fund investor John Paulson's gold fund as of Dec. 31, and with rumors circulating that Paulson may have to liquidate positions to handle coming redemption requests, the stocks that he reportedly owns could see further selling pressure even if gold bullion prices rise.
- [By Eric Volkman]
IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG ) might specialize in a precious metal, but it's continuing to pay its dividend in hard currency. The company has declared its latest semi-annual distribution at $0.125 per share of its common stock.
Top 5 Gold Companies To Own For 2014: First Majestic Silver Corp.(AG)
First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the production, development, exploration, and acquisition of mineral properties with a focus on silver in Mexico. The company owns interests in La Encantada Silver Mine comprising 4,076 hectares of mining rights and 1,343 hectares of surface land located in Coahuila; La Parrilla Silver Mine consisting of mining concessions covering an area of 69,867 hectares; and San Martin Silver Mine comprising approximately 7,841 hectares of mineral rights and approximately 1,300 hectares of surface land rights located in Jalisco. It also holds interests in Del Toro Silver Mine consisting of 393 contiguous hectares of mining claims and an additional 129 hectares of surface rights located in Zacatecas; Real de Catorce Silver Project comprising 22 mining concessions covering 6,327 hectares located in San Luis Potosi state; and Jalisco Group of Properties consisting of mining claims totalling 5,240 hectares located in Jalisco. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Doug Ehrman]
In terms of individual companies, there are several good choices, but these can behave very differently. Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS ) , for example, missed revenue expectations and beat earnings expectations in its last earnings release. But despite the beat, EPS shrank considerably from a year earlier on a GAAP basis. The stock has been fairly flat ever since. Conversely, First Majestic (NYSE: AG ) reported strong revenue growth and a small bump in profits, sending the stock higher since the announcement. First Majestic reported increased cash costs and tightening margins, largely driven by lower silver prices. Each of these companies faces pressure from increasing production costs and environmental concerns.
- [By Doug Ehrman]
Despite the weakness seen in precious metals a few weeks ago, silver has been relatively stable ever since mid-April, with the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV ) trading in a dollar-wide range ever since. With the presidents of the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks��releasing conflicting statements, turmoil may be just around the corner. Miners like Pan American (NASDAQ: PAAS ) and First Majestic (NYSE: AG ) are still facing operating challenges, while silver streaming darling Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW ) struggles as well.
- [By Monica Gerson]
First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG) is estimated to post its Q1 earnings at $0.10 per share on revenue of $63.35 million.
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (NYSE: RDY) is expected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.52 per share.
- [By Zacks]
Originally posted here...
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Top 5 Gold Companies To Own For 2014: Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited(AEM)
Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in Canada, Finland, and Mexico. The company primarily explores for gold, as well as silver, copper, zinc, and lead. Its flagship property includes the LaRonde mine located in the southern portion of the Abitibi volcanic belt, Canada. The company was founded in 1953 and is based in Toronto, Canada.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By GuruFocus]
George Soros (Trades, Portfolio) just reported his first quarter portfolio. He buys Citrix Systems Inc, Baker Hughes Inc, Comcast Corp, Spansion Inc, etc during the 3-months ended 03/31/2014, according to the most recent filings of his investment company, Soros Fund Management LLC. As of 03/31/2014, Soros Fund Management LLC owns 305 stocks with a total value of $10.1 billion. These are the details of the buys and sells.New Purchases: BHI, CODE, CTRP, CLI, AVB, COMM, CNQ, AGO, AUY, ATML, ASH, BXMT, CSTM, AEM, CMA, ARE, CHKP, AUQ, BEAV, CX, ADSK, AALCP, BLK, AIG, BIIB, ADEP, AMRI, ARWR, ATHX, BALT, BCRX, BEAT, CFX, CLFD, CUR, CODE,Added Positions: CTXS, CMCSA, CNP, ALTR, BRCD, CBS, CRM, CHTR, CCJ, CIEN, BIDU, ALLE, ABT, CDNS, ACT,Reduced Positions: AAPL, CCI, AMT, ABBV, AAL, BITA, AL, ANGI, ARIA, CBST, BA, BIRT, EXAR,Sold Out: C, BAC, CRI, AMZN, AGN, CF, BRCM, COTY, BMY, AMCX, CAR, A, ADBE, AFL,For the details of George Soros (Trades, Portfolio)'s stock buys and sells, go to http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=George+SorosThis is the sector weightings of his portfolio:Technology18.9%Energy14%Healthcare8.3%Consumer Defensive8.2%Communication Services8.1%Consumer Cyclical5.4%Industrials5.1%Basic Materials4.9%Financial Services2.5%Real Estate1.9%Utilities0.5%These are the top 5 holdings of George Soros (Trades, Portfolio)1. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (TEVA) - 10,310,041 shares, 5.4% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 10.67%2. Herbalife Ltd (HLF) - 4,901,337 shares, 2.8% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 52.9%3. EQT Corp (EQT) - 2,573,814 shares, 2.5% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 3.27%4. Adecoagro SA (AGRO) - 25,915,076 shares, 2.1% of the total portfolio.5. Halliburton Co (HAL) - 3,596,353 shares, 2.1% of the total portfolio. Shares reduced by 20.73%New Purchase: Baker Hughes Inc (BHI)George Soros (Trades, Portfolio) initiated holdings in Baker Hughes Inc. His purchase prices were between $51.82 and $65.27, with an estimated
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