Saturday, November 30, 2013

Will retail investors keep investing new money …

The stock market is an amazing long-run wealth-creating machine. But to take part in it, you have to invest your hard-earned cash, putting it at risk today for the potential rewards it may bring you in the future. Finding the cash to invest in ordinary times is a tough enough prospect, but add the current economic conditions to the mix, and investing takes a special kind of dedication.

Wages, after all, have been increasing at a rate of less than 2% for the past several years, barely keeping up with the official inflation rate. Furthermore, Obamacare will lead to big premium increases in many states for typical individual health-insurance plans, according to the Manhattan Institute. While more inclusive coverage might reduce out-of-pocket expenses, the net impact on total health-care costs could still push up the amount the public has to pay overall faster than most people's salaries have grown to cover those costs.

Whenever costs rise faster than salaries, one of the easiest things to cut is savings. That will make it tougher for the ordinary people considered "retail investors" to invest for their futures.

You still have to invest

On the flip side, there are still several key reasons why most of us retail investors will keep plugging away, investing what we can, when we can.

For one, Social Security is on a collision course with an emptied Trust Fund and an expected 20%-25% reduction in benefits. For those of us who hope to live beyond the next 20 years, just about the only sane path is to invest to help make up that gap. Another Social Security-related reason to invest: A Trust Fund collapse is likely to be averted by cutting the rate at which payments increase, reducing an inflation adjustment that's already inadequate to cover seniors' costs.

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A further item in favor of investment is that by holding down interest rates on government bonds through its q! uantitative-easing program, the Federal Reserve is purposely pushing investors farther out on the risk curve. In other words, if CDs and other "safe" investments pay a paltry 1% or so, investors who need a higher return just to make ends meet have to take on more risk. And with government bonds and other safe investments not providing real returns after inflation and taxes, that keeps money flowing to stocks.

For a third key reason, pensions are largely an artifact of the past, with companies largely replacing those defined benefit plans with defined contribution plans, like 401(k)s. That shift, plus an increased use of automatic enrollment (or "opt out") features, keeps people investing if they want any chance at a comfortable retirement.

Indeed, research from the Investment Company Institute suggests that people are continuing to invest in their 401(k)s and other defined contribution plans even as they slow their purchasing of mutual funds. That combination -- consistent 401(k) contribution and slower fund purchasing -- suggests ordinary retail investors are acting incredibly rationally.

So what will people do in 2014?

People's costs are rising, driven in large part by higher health-insurance premiums, but salaries haven't increased enough to compensate. As a result, people are prioritizing what they do with their money. What people can afford to invest is going into 401(k)s and other tax-advantaged retirement plans, while other investments are being sidelined as folks figure out how to cover their costs.

That trend, more than anything else, will likely continue through 2014. Whether higher costs force people to start drawing down their investments instead of simply slowing their rate of investing will depend on how well they can adapt the rest of their expenses. But with Social Security flagging, pensions no longer available for today's workforce, and the returns on safer savings held abysmally low, chances are that retail investors will do everything in their ability to! keep inv! esting.

Know you need to invest but not sure how to get started?

If you want a comfortable future, you know you need to join other everyday people as investors. If you've been burned by the market in the past or aren't sure how to get started, you're not alone. Millions of Americans have waited on the sidelines since the market meltdown in 2008 and 2009. Yet those who've stayed out of the market have missed out on huge gains and put their financial futures in jeopardy.

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.



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Friday, November 29, 2013

Benzinga's Top #PreMarket Losers

Ariad Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARIA) shares dropped 38.38% to $2.44 in pre-market trading on Iclusig marketing suspension.

NII Holdings (NASDAQ: NIHD) dipped 26.10% to $3.54 in the pre-market session after the company reported Q3 results.

Avon Products (NYSE: AVP) shares fell 11.42% to $19.85 in the pre-market trading after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q3 results.

Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU) dipped 10.29% to $3.40 on Q3 results.

Posted-In: PreMarket LosersNews Movers & Shakers Pre-Market Outlook Markets

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  Around the Web, We're Loving... Learn to Use Trading Platforms Like Hedge Fund Traders do Rumsfeld: Denial of Benefits to Fallen Soldiers' Families 'Inexcusable' Come See How the Pro's Trade in this Exclusive Webinar Facebook, Baidu Lead Big Caps Beating Shutdown What Should You Know About AMZN? Most Popular IBM Authorizes $0.95 Dividend; Authorizes $15B In Additional Buybacks What is Apple's Tim Cook Hinting at for 2014? Facebook Shares Edge Higher After Hours Following Upgrade to Buy from BTIG's Greenfield Is a Beer Mega-Merger On Tap? Earnings Scheduled For October 30, 2013 Net Optics Announces Pending Acquisition by Ixia for $190M in Cash Related Articles (ARIA + AVP) Benzinga's Top #PreMarket Losers #PreMarket Primer: Thursday, October 31: BOJ Bullish On Inflation Market Wrap for October 30: Fed Worries Push Stocks Lower, Facebook Earnings Raise Concerns Mid-Day Market Update: US Stocks Turn Lower; Electronic Arts Shares Rise On Upbeat Earnings Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Open Higher; GM Profit Tops Estimates Benzinga's Top #PreMarket Gainers View the discussion thread. Partner Network #marketfy-ae-block { display: none; border: 2px solid #0a3f75; overflow: hidden; width: 300px; height: 125px; text-align: center; background-color: #45719E; position: relative; z-index: 1; } #marketfy-ae-block a { display: block; width: 300px; height: 125px; position: relative; z-index: 2; color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none; } #marketfy-ae-block-countdown-text { color: #f9fc99; padding: 0px 0 0 0; font-size: 19px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 19px; } #marketfy-ae-block-countdown-text-start { font-size: 12px; } #marketfy-ae-block-countdown { padding: 5px 0 5px 0; font-size: 26px; } #marketfy-ae-block-signup { padding: 5px 47px; } #marketfy-ae-block-signup:hover { background-color: #457a1a; } #marketfy-ae-block #marketfy-ae-block-logo { display: block; padding: 3px 0 0 0; margin: 0; } #marketfy-ae-block-logo { text-indent: -9999px; } #marketfy-ae-block-free { display: block; position: absolute; top: 7px; right: -23px; width: 80px; height: 16px; line-height: 16px; text-align: center; opacity: 1; -webkit-transform: rotate(45deg); -moz-transform: rotate(45deg); -ms-transform: rotate(45deg); transform: rotate(45deg); font-size: 13px; font-weight: normal; color: #333333; background-color: yellow; z-index: 500; text-shadow: 1px 1px #999999; } #marketfy-ae-block-arrow { position: relative; width: 60px; height: 60px; z-index: 10; margin: -80px 0 13px -21px; } #marketfy-ae-block-arrow img { height: 60px; width: auto; } Marketfy's International
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Thursday, November 28, 2013

10 Big Name Stocks Going Ex-Dividend Next Week (Dec 2-6)

Ex-dividend dates are very important to dividend investors, since you must purchase a stock prior to its ex-dividend date in order to receive its upcoming dividend payout. For more information, check out Everything Investors Need to Know About Ex-Dividend Dates

Below we highlight 10 big-name stocks going ex-dividend for the week of December 2-6.

1. Wal-MartWal-Mart

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) is set to trade ex-dividend on December 4. The discount retailer offers a dividend yield of 2.33% based on Tuesday's closing price of $80.68 and the company's quarterly dividend payout of 47 cents. The stock is up 18% year-to-date. Dividend.com currently rates WMT as “Neutral” with a DARS™ rating of 3.4 stars out of 5 stars.

2. TravelersTravelers

Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) is set to trade ex-dividend on December 6. The insurance company offers a dividend yield of 2.20% based on Tuesday's closing price of $90.79 and the company's quarterly dividend payout of 50 cents. The stock is up 27% year-to-date. Dividend.com currently rates TRV as “Neutral” with a DARS™ rating of 3.4 stars out of 5 stars.

3. Occidental PetroleumOccidental Petroleum

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is set to trade ex-dividend on December 6. The oil and gas company offers a dividend yield of 2.62% based on Tuesday's closing price of $97.63 and the company's quarterly dividend payout of 64 cents. The stock is up 28% year-to-date. Dividend.com currently rates OXY as “Neutral” with a DARS™ rating of 3.4 stars out of 5 stars.

4. UnitedHealth GroupUnitedHealth Group

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) is set to trade ex-dividend on December 4. The healthcare company offers a dividend yield of 1.50% based on Tuesday's closing price of $74.52 and the company's quarterly dividend payout of 28 centd. The stock is up 38% year-to-date. Dividend.com currently rates UNH as “Neutral” with a DARS™ rating of 3.4 stars out of 5 stars.

5. PepsiCoPepsiCo

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PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is set to trade ex-dividend on December 4. The beverage company offers a dividend yield of 2.69% based on Tuesday's closing price of $84.39 and the company's quarterly dividend payout of 56.75 cents. The stock is up 24% year-to-date. Dividend.com currently rates PEP as “Neutral” with a DARS™ rating of 3.4 stars out of 5 stars.

6. Kimberly-ClarkKimberly-Clark

Kimberly Clark Corp (KMB) is set to trade ex-dividend on December 4. The consumer products company offers a dividend yield of 3.00% based on Tuesday's closing price of $108.13 and the company's quarterly dividend payout of 81 cents. The stock is up 29% year-to-date. Dividend.com currently rates KMB as “Neutral” with a DARS™ rating of 3.4 stars out of 5 stars.

7. Brinker InternationalBrinker International

Brinker International, Inc. (

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Alec Baldwin and MSNBC have parted ways

UPDATE:

MSNBC and Matthew Hiltzik, a representative of Alec Baldwin, have released a statement: "We are jointly confirming that Up Late will not continue on MSNBC."

MSNBC has also released a statement that clarifying that it is a "mutual parting and we wish Alec all the best."

EARLIER POST:

Maybe this is what he meant when he said he wasn't sure if his MSNBC show would ever come back.

Page Six originally reported that Baldwin had been fired.

Alec Baldwin has been fired by MSNBC, reports Page Six, citing "sources." His weekly show, Up Late With Alec Baldwin, was originally pulled off the air for two weeks following an incident in which Baldwin fired a homophobic slur at a photographer.

"The decision has been made. He's gone," an insider at the cable channel tells Page Six. "The (parent company) Comcast guys have decided. Word is spreading through the building."

However, Variety reports that Baldwin was not fired, but that the sides "mutually" agreed to end the show.

A source tells Page Six his "diva-like behavior toward co-workers" contributed to his removal. Baldwin's demands allegedly include a humidifier because he claimed the air at 30 Rock was too dry, and the actor alienated staffers when he demanded a separate makeup room that was being used by a woman with cancer who is sensitive to hairspray.

"I don't give a (expletive) if she has cancer or not, I want that (expletive) makeup room," he allegedly said.

Baldwin might be out of a job, but it could work out well for him. He did, after all, say he was thinking about quitting show business.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Will Black Friday Take Wal-Mart Higher?

With shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) trading around $80, is WMT an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Wal-Mart operates retail stores in various formats around the world. The company aims to price items at the lowest price every day. Wal-Mart operates in three business segments: the Walmart U.S. segment, the Walmart International segment, and the Sam's Club segment. It manages retail stores, restaurants, discount stores, supermarkets, super centers, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, apparel stores, Sam's Clubs, neighborhood markets, and other small formats, as well as Walmart.com and Samsclub.com. Through its retail channels, Wal-Mart is able to provide a variety of products and services at affordable prices to consumers and companies worldwide.

Wal-Mart is starting up its Black Friday shopping event earlier than ever this year, at 6:00 pm on Thanksgiving Day. "Black Friday is our Super Bowl and we plan to win," Duncan Mac Naughton, Wal-Mart's chief merchandising and marketing officer, said in a company press release. "With six fewer days from Thanksgiving to Christmas, the retail environment is more competitive than ever. Every opportunity to get a great deal — whether this weekend, on Thanksgiving Day, or Black Friday weekend — matters for our customers. When it comes to price, we're going to deliver for them."

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Wal-Mart stock has made positive progress in recent quarters. The stock is currently trading near highs for the year. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Wal-Mart is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

WMT

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Wal-Mart options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Wal-Mart Options

13.42%

3%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Flat

Average

January Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Wal-Mart’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Wal-Mart look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

5.56%

5.93%

4.59%

11.14%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

1.66%

1.68%

1.04%

3.86%

Earnings Reaction

0.22%

-2.60%

-1.70%

1.51%

Wal-Mart has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Wal-Mart’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Wal-Mart stock done relative to its peers, Target (NYSE:TGT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS), and sector?

Wal-Mart

Target

Costco

Kohl’s

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

17.65%

7.67%

26.98%

29.80%

21.52%

Wal-Mart has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Wal-Mart is a retail company that provides a variety of products and services to consumers and companies worldwide. The company is starting up its Black Friday shopping event earlier than ever this year, at 6:00 pm on Thanksgiving Day. The stock has made some progress in recent quarters and is currently trading near highs for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been increasing, which has pleased investors in the company. Relative to its peers and sector, Wal-Mart has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Wal-Mart to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Cash Flow Statement: Analyzing Cash Flow From Investing Activities

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The cash flow statement is one of the most revealing documents of a firm's financial statements, but it is often overlooked. It shows the sources and uses of a firm's cash as it moves both in and out. When analyzing a company's cash flow statement, it is important to consider each of the various sections that contribute to the overall change in cash position. In many cases, a firm may have negative overall cash flow for a given quarter, but if the company can generate positive cash flow from its business operations, the negative overall cash flow is not necessarily a bad thing. Below we will cover cash flow from investing activities, one of three primary categories in the statement of cash flows.

Introduction to Cash Flow from Investing Activities

An item on the cash flow statement belongs in the investing activities section if it results from any gains (or losses) from investments in financial markets and operating subsidiaries. An investing activity refers to cash spent on investments in capital assets such as plant and equipment, which is collectively referred to as capital expenditure, or capex.

Here is a simple cash flow (of investing activities) for restaurant chain Texas Roadhouse (Nasdaq:TXRH):




Immediately, you can observe that the main investing activities for Texas Roadhouse is capex. Texas Roadhouse is growing briskly and spends plenty on capex to open new restaurant locations across the United States. In its 10-K filing with the SEC, it details that it spends money to remodel existing stores and build new ones, as well as acquire the land they are built on. Overall, capex is an extremely important cash flow item that investors are not going to find in reported company profits.

Texas Roadhouse also strategically buys out franc! hises and spent $4.3 million during 2012 to do so. Sometimes it may sell restaurant equipment that is outdated or unused, which then brings in cash instead of being an outflow like other capex. This activity amounted to just over $1 million in 2012.

Below is a more comprehensive list of cash flows that can stem from a firm's investing activities:

· Examples of Inflows:

Proceeds from disposal of property, plant and equipment Cash receipts from disposal of debt instruments of other entities Receipts from sale of equity instruments of other entities · Examples of Outflows:

Payments for acquisition of property, plant and equipment Payments for purchase of debt instruments of other entities Payments for purchase of equity instruments of other entities Sales/maturities of investments Includes purchasing and selling long- term assets and other investments. Firms with excess capital or financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies will have buying and selling activity from their investment portfolios that flow through the investing activity portion of the cash flow statement.

How do some balance sheet items relate to this cash flow section?

Analyzing the cash flow statement is extremely valuable because it provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending cash on the balance sheet. This analysis is difficult for most publicly-traded companies because of the thousands of line items that can go into financial statements. For Texas Roadhouse, its net property and equipment increased by $34,437,000 between 2011 and 2012. Of this amount, the capital expenditure was capitalized (not expensed) on the balance sheet, net of depreciation. The other costs were expensed and reflected on the income statement. In regard to the nearly $4.3 million spent to buy out the franchised restaurant above, here is where it was allocated across the balance sheet:



For a public company, it's going to be nearly impossible to use the original balance sheet and cash flow statements to determine each item down to the specific dollar amount. With the help of the notes in the financial statements (the above is from Texas Roadhouse's notes on acquisitions), an interested party can get a pretty clear understanding of the major items on the investing portion of the cash flow statement and what it means for a firm's financial health.

Investors Reviewing Cash Flow Statements

A firm can get itself into trouble by spending foolishly on acquisitions or capex to either maintain or grow its operations. A great guide for capex is how it relates to depreciation and amortization, which can be found in cash flow from operations on the cash flow statement. This represents an annual charge on past spending tha! t was capitalized on the balance sheet to grow and maintain the business. For Texas Roadhouse, this amounted to $46.7 million in 2012. The fact that capex was nearly double this amount demonstrates it is a growth firm. Yet there is little worry about its financial health because it has minimal long-term debt (other than capital leases) and generated an impressive $146 million in operating cash flow for the year to easily cover capex and $29.4 million in stock buybacks for the year (a cash flow from financing activity).

The Bottom Line

Clearly, the investing section of the cash flow statement needs to be analyzed along with a firm's other financial statements. Reviewing capex, acquisitions, and investment activity are some of the most important exercises an individual can do to see how efficiently a company's management is using shareholder capital to run is operations.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Can eBay See Its Stock Move Higher?

With shares of eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) trading around $50, is EBAY an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Ebay provides online platforms, tools, and services to help individuals and merchants with online and mobile commerce in the U.S. and around the world. Its marketplaces segment operates e-commerce platform eBay.com, and vertical shopping sites. The company operates through three segments: Marketplaces, Payments, and GSI. Ultimately, through its tools and platforms, eBay assists individuals and merchants around the globe engage in online and mobile commerce.

On Thursday, Ebay Enterprise said that it has signed a multiyear accord with Fifth & Pacific Cos. Inc. (NYSE:FNP), which is the designer and marketer of a portfolio of premium, worldwide lifestyle brands. The company will supply fulfillment, warehouse and order management systems, freight, payments, and customer service solutions for Kate Spade Saturday, Kate Spade New York, Jack Spade, and Lucky Brand in the United States and Canada.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Mixed

Ebay stock has seen positive progress in recent years. The stock has struggled this year as it continues to pullback from nearly hitting all-time highs. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Ebay is trading below its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

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EBAY

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Ebay options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Ebay Options

27.32%

60%

58%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Steep

Average

January Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Ebay’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Ebay look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

16.36%

-7.55%

15.91%

-62.10%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

14.34%

14.10%

14.37%

18.14%

Earnings Reaction

-3.99%

-6.72%

-5.84%

2.40%

Ebay has seen mixed earnings and increasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been generally pleased with Ebay’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Ebay stock done relative to its peers, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Overstock (NASDAQ:OSTK), Mercadolibre (NASDAQ:MELI), and sector?

Ebay

Amazon

Overstock

Mercadolibre

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-1.35%

48.89%

89.17%

43.28%

45.99%

Ebay has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Ebay is an established company that has made a name for itself pioneering internet commerce. The company recently signed a multiyear accord with Fifth & Pacific Cos. Inc. The stock has moved higher in recent years but is now pulling back as it digests gains from a recent run. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been rising which has left investors to expect more from the company. Relative to its peers and sector, eBay has been a weak year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what eBay does this coming quarter.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Crude Futures Remain Positive

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Crude futures, which made a low in early in the session, have not been able to clear the major resistance at the double top from Wednesday (104.23) and Thursday (104.38). Over the past hour, the contract has made an attempt to stay in the 104 handle, but has failed.

Posted-In: Futures Commodities Technicals Intraday Update Markets Trading Ideas

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Thursday, November 21, 2013

Krawcheck Warns Investors in Big Banks to Be Wary

Sallie Krawcheck, who used to run wealth management operations for Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BAC) and Citigroup Smith Barney (C), says bank earnings are being hit — and hit hard — by government fines.

With the announcement that JPMorgan (JPM) had reached a $13 billion settlement over mortgage-backed securities early on Tuesday, Krawcheck was asked by Bloomberg TV when regulators might feel that “enough is enough.”

“Probably not yet, is the answer,” she said.

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In her mind, the more important issue is what other banks will pay going forward for similar settlements, if regulators have “started to look at this as a source of revenue, a source of fines.”

It’s essentially become “a tax on excess earnings,” Krawcheck explained. “It really does raise the question of the [bank’s] underlying earnings power.”

For investors, she advises them to “think pretty hard about what these returns are” and what the major bank’s return on equity is. “You have some CEOs talking about 18, 19 and 20 % ROEs. That is a hard thing to think about … particularly coming out of this year.”

How can banks improve earnings in the face of such fines?

“One [way] is to innovate and grow…, which Wall Street has not been great at. What they called innovation was, let’s face it, increased risk wrapped in complexity,” Krawcheck said. “It’s not a great history of innovating in a way that helps consumers.”

Alternatively, the banks can cut costs, or “ride a good market,” she notes.

Dimon in the Rough

Krawcheck, who owns 85 Broads, a group for women in the financial services industry, laughed loud and hard when asked about what other bankers have learned from Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan.

“There are some macro lessons to be learned about really trying hard next time to not get into the group thing, for seeing a bubble as a bubble,” she said.

She also urged banks to get “everything on paper” when it comes to discussing deals with regulators.

Wealth Management

Krawcheck stressed that what some observers once thought of as a “stagnant commission business has shifted to a true wealth-management business,” highlighting improving margins in the advisor side of the industry.

“And with that, the profitability shifts over time,” she added.

Since clients will compensate advisors for the service they provide. “It’s a great business,” Krawcheck noted.

---

Check out Krawcheck, Blayney: Top Financial Mistakes Women Keep Making on ThinkAdvisor.

 

Monday, November 18, 2013

Will Oracle Move Higher Post-Earnings?

With shares of Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) trading around $33, is ORCL an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Oracle is a provider of enterprise software and computer hardware products and services. The company's software, hardware systems, and services businesses develop, manufacture, markets, host, and support database and middleware software, applications software, and hardware systems, with the latter consisting primarily of computer server and storage products. It is organized into three businesses: software, hardware systems, and services. Information technology products and services are seeing increasing demand due to the surge of companies in developing economies.

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Oracle reported its fiscal first quarter earnings Wednesday evening, beating expectations for earnings but falling short on revenue. Oracle is battling reduced global demand for IT and smaller companies that provide software online. Software licenses and cloud subscriptions rose 5 percent, which was better than last quarter's disappointing 1 percent, although Oracle's hardware sales fell 13 percent year-over-year.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Oracle stock has quietly been trending higher in recent quarters. The stock is currently trading near mid-prices for the year and it may need a bit of time before establishing value. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Oracle is trading slightly above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

ORCL

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Oracle options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Oracle Options

21.97%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

October Options

Flat

Average

November Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Oracle’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Oracle look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

11.32%

16.49%

6.12%

23.26%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

2.44%

0.28%

0.90%

3.43%

Earnings Reaction

-0.38%*

-2.58%

-9.67%

3.68%

Oracle has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have expected a little more from Oracle’s recent earnings announcements.

*As of this writing

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Oracle stock done relative to its peers, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), SAP (NYSE:SAP), IBM (NYSE:IBM), and sector?

Oracle

Microsoft

SAP

IBM

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

0.84%

25.50%

-6.53%

1.11%

5.73%

Oracle has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Oracle is an international supplier of software and hardware products and services to companies operating in various industries. The company recently reported solid earnings that did not mean investor expectations. The stock has been quietly trending higher and is currently trading near mid-prices for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been rising, however, investors have expected a little more from the company. Relative to its peers and sector, Oracle has been a weak year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Oracle does this coming quarter.

Sunday, November 17, 2013

The Secret for Those Who Retire at 30

By Hal M. Bundrick

NEW YORK (MainStreet) -- Ah yes, the life of a millionaire. Lazy days at the country club. Perhaps a bit of travel overseas before returning to your posh vacation home and spending hours cruising the lake in your boat. No doubt, you're picturing a frolicking, handsome, white-haired senior couple straight out of a Levitra ad, right? The truth is, the reality of this scenario would better fit a vibrant, young-adult couple in their mid-30s, according to new research from Fidelity.

The study of Gen X/Y millionaires under the age of 48, with an average age of 37, finds they are more optimistic, more likely than their Boomer peers to take an overseas vacation (flying first class) and also have that country club membership, vacation home and boat.

Many of these rich young adults inherited their wealth, but are far from squandering it. Averaging 30 trades per month, they are active investors, personally engaged in further building their wealth. And while more likely to enjoy their wealth, they also tend to be more generous with their time and money than wealthy Boomers.
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"Gen X/Y millionaires are taking a dramatically different approach to their wealth than the older generations, signaling a new era of wealthy investors," says Bob Oros, an executive vice president with Fidelity. "These next generation millionaires, who have already surpassed their older counterparts in total assets, are likely to drive significant change among the investors who want to emulate them, the advisors who serve them and the financial services industry that supports them."
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Even though the study found that 71% of Gen X/Y millionaires said they feel knowledgeable about investing, a vast majority (92%) work with a financial advisor. And while older millionaires are maintaining consistent investing strategies (43% didn't add any asset classes in the last year), Gen X/Y millionaires are more likely to adjust their portfolios, adding sophisticated investments like foreign currency, international individual securities, venture capital and derivatives. Most (61%) make their own investment decisions, but look to a financial advisor for a second opinion -- only 6% delegate their decisions entirely.

"Financial advisors should be prepared to deal with Gen X/Y clients who are knowledgeable and who like to be involved in their investments," continued Oros. "These new millionaires are collaborators, looking for a validator to partner with on their investments."
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In addition to validation, the study found that Gen X/Y millionaires were relying on financial advisors for longer-term planning and were not as dependent as their older counterparts for investment strategies. While 73% of the Boomers+ group currently receives general investment/portfolio management from their advisors, only 48% of Gen X/Y millionaires do. The Gen X/Y group was more likely to be interested in longer-term services, such as estate planning/gifting, charitable giving and planning and retirement strategies.

And despite the "me" generation stereotype, Gen X/Y millionaires are generous, averaging $54,000 in donations to charity each year -- and are also more likely to volunteer or serve on the board of a charity (82% vs. 49% for Boomers+).

--Written by Hal M. Bundrick for MainStreet

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) Q3 Earnings Preview: Bullish November Calls

Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) plans to announce third quarter results on Monday, November 18, 2013. A conference call is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET to discuss the results and business environment.

Wall Street anticipates that the specialty retailer will earn $0.45 per share for the quarter. iStock expects URBN to hit Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is $0.45, too.

Urban Outfitters engages in the retail and wholesale of general consumer products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Retail and Wholesale. The company operates retail stores under the Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, Free People, Terrain, and BHLDN brands.

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According to OptionMonster, bulls loaded up on November call options. The broker says, "Total option volume in the name topped 19,800 contracts on Friday [November 8, 2013], 12 times its daily average for the last month. Overall calls outnumbered puts by 9 to 1." The story notes that speculators focused on the $39 and $40 strike prices.

URBN closed at $39.99 yesterday, so the traders are well positioned to profit if the stock pops on EPS. Taking the bullish side would have been the winning trade 10 of last 16 earnings announcements. On average, URBN lifted by 5.87% in the three days surrounding earnings. That means shares backed up six times, falling as much as 16.50% with an average loss of 6.22%.

Nine of the 10 EPS-driven pops accompanied a bullish surprise while the six drops were split between bullish and bearish surprises. However, the November report has delivered four straight price increases, ranging from 0.50% to 9.7% and averaging 4.13% in the three-days circling the profit announcement.

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The heavy call buyers could make some $$$ based on Urban Outfitters' historic price-sensitivity for the November EPS report-card.

iStock is worried about URBN's margins after reviewing ! the company's most recent 10-Q.  Inventory increases by an eye-opening 22.98% while revenue increased at a slower pace of 12.16%. In all likelihood, the merchandise build up means sales prices to get the old out the door to make room for the new, especially as the holiday shopping season approaches. Another concern, although less so, is a 36.15% jump in accounts receivables (ARs), which could mean some customers are slow to pay because sales are faltering.

The combo of rising ARs and inventory can be deadly to EPS. It may not show up on Monday, but will eventually hurt the bottom line if the pair of balance-sheet line items continues to outpace sales – keep an eye on it.

While we have our concerns for the bottom line, the top line of the income statement should continue to improve. According to the US Commerce Department's ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SEPTEMBER 2013, sales for clothing & clothing accessories stores increased by 3.5% for the third quarter of 2013 compared to the same time frame a year ago, and rose 0.3% versus Q2 2013.

Overall: The November report has been kind to Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) shareholders. Retail sales should provide a boost to revenue; however, the bottom line could suffer if URBN discounted heavily to shrink expanding inventory levels. 

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Will retail investors keep investing new money …

The stock market is an amazing long-run wealth-creating machine. But to take part in it, you have to invest your hard-earned cash, putting it at risk today for the potential rewards it may bring you in the future. Finding the cash to invest in ordinary times is a tough enough prospect, but add the current economic conditions to the mix, and investing takes a special kind of dedication.

Wages, after all, have been increasing at a rate of less than 2% for the past several years, barely keeping up with the official inflation rate. Furthermore, Obamacare will lead to big premium increases in many states for typical individual health-insurance plans, according to the Manhattan Institute. While more inclusive coverage might reduce out-of-pocket expenses, the net impact on total health-care costs could still push up the amount the public has to pay overall faster than most people's salaries have grown to cover those costs.

Whenever costs rise faster than salaries, one of the easiest things to cut is savings. That will make it tougher for the ordinary people considered "retail investors" to invest for their futures.

You still have to invest

On the flip side, there are still several key reasons why most of us retail investors will keep plugging away, investing what we can, when we can.

For one, Social Security is on a collision course with an emptied Trust Fund and an expected 20%-25% reduction in benefits. For those of us who hope to live beyond the next 20 years, just about the only sane path is to invest to help make up that gap. Another Social Security-related reason to invest: A Trust Fund collapse is likely to be averted by cutting the rate at which payments increase, reducing an inflation adjustment that's already inadequate to cover seniors' costs.

A further item in favor of investment is that by holding down interest rates on government bonds through its quantitative-easing program, the Federal Reserve is purposely pushing investors farther out on the risk curve. In ot! her words, if CDs and other "safe" investments pay a paltry 1% or so, investors who need a higher return just to make ends meet have to take on more risk. And with government bonds and other safe investments not providing real returns after inflation and taxes, that keeps money flowing to stocks.

For a third key reason, pensions are largely an artifact of the past, with companies largely replacing those defined benefit plans with defined contribution plans, like 401(k)s. That shift, plus an increased use of automatic enrollment (or "opt out") features, keeps people investing if they want any chance at a comfortable retirement.

Indeed, research from the Investment Company Institute suggests that people are continuing to invest in their 401(k)s and other defined contribution plans even as they slow their purchasing of mutual funds. That combination -- consistent 401(k) contribution and slower fund purchasing -- suggests ordinary retail investors are acting incredibly rationally.

So what will people do in 2014?

People's costs are rising, driven in large part by higher health-insurance premiums, but salaries haven't increased enough to compensate. As a result, people are prioritizing what they do with their money. What people can afford to invest is going into 401(k)s and other tax-advantaged retirement plans, while other investments are being sidelined as folks figure out how to cover their costs.

That trend, more than anything else, will likely continue through 2014. Whether higher costs force people to start drawing down their investments instead of simply slowing their rate of investing will depend on how well they can adapt the rest of their expenses. But with Social Security flagging, pensions no longer available for today's workforce, and the returns on safer savings held abysmally low, chances are that retail investors will do everything in their ability to keep investing.

Know you need to invest but not sure how to get started?

If you want a comfortable fut! ure, you ! know you need to join other everyday people as investors. If you've been burned by the market in the past or aren't sure how to get started, you're not alone. Millions of Americans have waited on the sidelines since the market meltdown in 2008 and 2009. Yet those who've stayed out of the market have missed out on huge gains and put their financial futures in jeopardy.

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.



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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Low interest rates threaten universal life insurance policies

Low interest rates are imperiling in-force universal life insurance policies, and consequently pose a potential threat to trusts and estates.

Attorneys, accountants and financial advisers are struggling with universal life insurance policies that were written during periods of higher interest rates for use within an irrevocable life insurance trust to help soften the blow of estate taxes.

These days, those policies – which were sold in the 1980s and '90s – are at risk of lapsing, and clients will have to make the choice between letting the policy go, taking a cut in death benefits or shelling out even more money to fund premiums and keep the policy in force.

“Back in the day when the estate planning attorneys drafted these trusts, many of them also became the trustees,” said Thomas J. Henske, a partner at Lenox Advisors. “They didn't think of the life insurance [inside] as an investment, but rather as something they could set and forget. These policies are now set to fail and the price for remediation is enormous.”

The cost of failing to keep up with an insurance policy are very real. One of Mr. Henske's clients bought a policy from an agent when he was 40 and was told he would be paying premiums of $12,000 a year for $4 million of coverage. At the time, the interest paid on the policy was 6.25%.When Mr. Henske reviewed the policy six years later, the credited interest rate had come down to 4%, and now the client will need to pay up $25,000 per year to keep the policy.

“This is problematic: He budgeted for $12,000, and now he's literally paying double that amount to keep it in force,” said Mr. Henske. “If we hadn't audited the policy, it would've been even more. If you catch it early, you have a better chance of beating it.”

This client wound up keeping the policy at the higher premium.

The problem is that these policies were based on optimistic interest rate assumptions, back when those rates were as high as 15%. So-called UL features included not only a death benefit, but also a cash value account that receives interest and that can be funded by a portion of premium dollars. Costs of insurance are drawn from the cash value.

Upbeat interest rate projections at the time meant that clients being sold these policies did not expect to pay much to fund the policy's costs. Those high credited interest rates supposedly would help foot the bill.

“Even the most conservative agents and brokers were projecting 7% to 10% [long-term] interest rates,” noted Henry Montag, a partner at Financial Forums Inc., who has been discussing the issue with a number of estate planner! s.

But in today's low interest rate environment, it's become significantly harder for insurers to credit the rates clients were expecting 20 years ago. Now, those customers need to cough up more money to fund the cost of keeping the policy in force. If they can't, they have the option of lapsing or cutting their death benefits. Even charitable giving plans that intend to donate UL death benefits to causes have also been dinged by the development.

Mr. Montag estimates that many of the trustees overseeing the affected trusts also are relatives of the person who set up the vehicle in the first place. “They accepted the position without any knowledge of their responsibilities, duties and liabilities, nor do they have the skills necessary to successfully keep the trust's primary holding — its life insurance — from expiring prematurely,” he said.

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In fact, those trustees run the risk of violating the fiduciary duty they owe the trust if the insurance policy fails, according to an Oct. 17 newsletter from the Association for Advanced Life Underwriting.

There's a lesson here for financial advisers and trustees: Treat life insurance as an asset that will require a periodic check-up to ensure that it's holding up in today's environment. Randy Whitelaw, managing director of Trust Asset Consultants and co-creator of The TOLI Center, a life insurance risk management services provider, uses a framework that not only employs an investment policy statement but also ponders the suitability of a given policy for a trust.

“If it's determined that it's suitable, you want to ensure that there is a credible evaluation to determine the premium amount necessary to be paid to sustain the policy,” he said.

As for policies that are already in crisis, advisers should evaluate whether the client can reasonably reduce the policy's death benefit. “Many ! of these ! were bought when the estate tax exemption was far below what we have today [now at $5.25 million for individuals],” said Gavin Morrissey, senior vice president of wealth management at Commonwealth Financial Network.

Still, “there may be cases where they need the liquidity, say for state-level estate taxes or if it's part of a buy-sell agreement or for succession planning,” he added.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Food For Thought With L&L Energy (LLEN)

Despite every fiber of my being telling me to not get involved in the schoolyard fight between L&L Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:LLEN) and apparently one of its enemies (that just so happens to have a short/bearish position in LLEN), I find myself unable to not sound off. A sane and unbiased observation has to be injected into the mix here.

If you're reading this, then odds are you're already aware that L&L Energy is an American company with 100% of its operation in China. Specifically, the company produces and distributes coal to China's coal-burning plants.

It's admittedly a situation that invites the possibility of accusations; how could anyone here verify anything the company claims about what's going on there? Even worse for L&L Energy, Inc. is that many Chinese companies (American-owned as well as Chinese-owned) were indeed found to be frauds a few years ago... a stigma that has haunted any company with a similar ownership/operational structure ever since. 

To be fair, some of that skepticism is deserved; it would be surprising if there weren't still some sham companies "out there" in the ether. That's not a China thing though. That's an everywhere thing.

Still, for the same reason L&L Energy can't physically take American investors to its facility in China to validate its existence, an organization called GeoInvesting can't validate that any of its allegations either.... allegations that appeared in a lengthy and well-polished report posted at Seeking Alpha back on September 19th, basically alleging that LLEN was a sham.

You'll have to come to your own conclusions about L&L Energy, Inc. here. But, before you jump on the bandwagon, know that (1) anyone can post a reasonable-sounding commentary at Seeking Alpha, without going through any kind of vetting or fact-checking process, and (2) GeoInvesting garners a great deal of traffic and attention for its website by causing this kind of stir.

To its credit, GeoInvesting has uncovered several fraudulent Chinese stocks in the past, ultimately leading to their delisting. What's not clear, however, is how many fraud accusations it's made that were never actually proven or validated, and just faded away as the market lost interest.

Whatever the case, this is a situation where - now that the dust has settled - I'm more inclined to trust the market's treatment of LLEN rather than the media's more prevailing message (an echo of the original hit piece) regarding the company. And what the market's saying about L&L Energy, Inc. right now is that it sees more upside than downside; shares are up nearly 10% today, and are well up from where they made a hard landing immediately following the Seeking Alpha hit piece. Is it possible the bearish argument is now being made louder and more fervently because GeoInvesting's short position is not only not making progress, but is actually moving backwards? Just sayin'.

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Is it possible LLEN is a sham? Sure, but not any more so just because GeoInvesting said so.

If you'd like to get more trading ideas and insights like this one, sign up for the free SmallCap Network daily e-newsletter. It's full of stock picks, market calls, and more.

Monday, November 11, 2013

At Kickoff of Schwab Impact, Optimism Over the Government. Really.

Greg Valliere began his portion of the Schwab Impact 2013 preconference session on Sunday by telling a joke illustrating how low Congress has fallen in the public’s esteem. The owner of the capital city’s NFL franchise had decided to change the name of the team, he reported. “He’s keeping ‘Redskins’ but he’s dropping ‘Washington,’” the political researcher and consultant deadpanned to appreciative laughter, before going on to explain three main causes of optimism emanating from Washington.

Impact is being held in Washington this year, and as of the preconference session, had attracted 1,927 advisor registrants and 1,178 sponsors and exhibitors, according to Schwab. The Sunday afternoon session featured Valliere speaking about politics and Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab’s chief market strategist, speaking about the economy and the markets, before the two decamped to a new feature at Impact: a more intimate Q&A session on smaller stages in the “Exchange” on the exhibit floor.

Valliere, chief political strategist for the Potomac Research Group in Washington and a popular speaker at Impact conferences, said  he’s “quite bullish” on Washington, and believes there will be no repeat of the debt ceiling debate nor another government shutdown, citing even Republican sources for that prediction.

Moreover, he is optimistic about developments inside the Beltway for three main reasons. One, because this is “the most dovish Fed in my lifetime,” mentioning a number of local Fed governors’s dovish views as well as that of the putative Federal Reserve Chairman, Janet Yellen, who he predicted will be confirmed at her Nov. 14 nomination hearing, though possibly “with a hiccup.” Due to the mixed result of QE3, Valliere expects that the Fed would likely not start tapering its Treasury purchase until early in 2014, and won’t get around to raising the federal funds rate until 2015. Tapering can’t begin earlier, he said, because the “biggest problem the Fed has is that inflation is too low.” That’s because the Fed’s favorite economic indicator, unit labor coasts, were up only 1.1% in the latest GDP numbers. As a result, tapering may begin in the new year, with monthly Fed purchases declinging from the current $85 billion to “maybe $75 billion.”

The second cause for optimism, said Valliere, was the “strong atmosphere of fiscal restraint” in Washington. The budget deficit continues to decline, he said, due to a sharp increase in receipts, “no new spending, none” because with the current House of Representatives in control, there “will be no new spending in this town," and because of actual spending cuts. “Usually, ‘spending cuts’ means a decrease in the rate of spending increases," he said, "but we’re seeing real cuts now, for the first time in my career."

As an aside, Valliere mentioned that Obamacare will prove to be an “albatross” for Democrats, especially with its problem-filled rollout, overtaking the Republicans’ own albatross, the government shutdown. As a result, he thinks the GOP may add “three to four” seats in the Senate.” His final cause for optimism is something that he says has “stunned this city: an activist, liberal president who is totally dead in the water,” which means that deadlock will continue to persist in Washington.

In fact, he says that on Capitol Hill, you’ll hear more criticism of President Obama among Democrats than among Republicans, in large part because they believe his missteps will make it harder for them to be re-elected.

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So looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, Valliere pooh-poohed the prospects of a Hillary Clinton campaign, while saying that one Democrat “that gets the base excited is Elizabeth Warren.”

In his bipartisan way, Valliere then assessed the potential Republican nominees for president, saying that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie “could get 270 electoral votes” in the general election, and that “the (GOP) establishment will rally around Christie.” However, standing in the way of a Christie nomination will be the survivors of the “enormous civil war” now taking place within the Republican party. The Tea Party movement disturbs the Republican establishment (and Valliere himself) for several reasons, including its isolationism as espoused by Rand Paul, which he said was reminiscent of the 1930s and has dealt the U.S. a “big blow” in the Middle East.

Moreover, that faction of the GOP, he said, not only rejects Wall Street and the big banks but even mainstream small-business groups like the Chamber of Commerce.

---

Check out ThinkAdvisor’s complete coverage of Schwab Impact 2013.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Top Undervalued Stocks For 2014

With financial eyes once again on the Federal Reserve, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) closed down modestly today, falling 37 points, or 0.2%. The Fed's Open Market Committee is meeting today and tomorrow and will report the results of its eight-times-a-year meeting on Wednesday, giving investors the latest insights as to when the central bank may begin tapering its $85 billion monthly stimulus program.

Today, only one economic report was released -- June pending home sales, which showed a decrease of 0.4% from May, but that number was better than economists' projection of a 1.7% drop. Increasing mortgage rates, which have gone up as the Fed threatens to cut its Treasury bond purchases, are putting pressure on the housing recovery. Still, sales are just a hair off the six-year high it hit in May.

On the Dow today, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) led all comers, finishing up 1.2% after announcing it will buy back $1 billion of its shares from French bank Societe Generale, most of which it will purchase immediately. With the global mining industry in a down cycle, Caterpillar has struggled this year, falling last week after a forgettable earnings report that included a guidance cut. The share repurchase announcement would seem to indicate that management sees the stock as undervalued.

Top Undervalued Stocks For 2014: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Dollar General�� share price is up less than 6% in the past 12 months, but since the beginning of the year shares have risen more than 22%. And even then, Dollar General�trails Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) in share price growth since January 1. Dollar Tree stock is up 30%.

  • [By Demitrios Kalogeropoulos]

    Costly market share gains
    The problem is that Family Dollar has had to pay up for its increasing market share and sales levels. The company's gross profit margin fell by more than a full percentage point, to 34.7% last quarter. In contrast, Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR  ) booked an expansion of profits, to 35.2%, continuing a trend that's seen it pull away from Family Dollar.

  • [By Lawrence Meyers]

    As a convenience store, it doesn’t have direct competition from�Dollar Tree (DLTR) or Family Dollar (FDO) because these dollar stores aren�� exclusively focused on food (and they have no gasoline or cigarette sales), and they��e targeted at the folks who are trying to save money over convenience, not vice versa. The convenience angle is another reason why�Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST)�aren’t competitors, since those behemoths are about a total shopping experience.

Top Undervalued Stocks For 2014: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Eric Volkman]

    Tupperware Brands (NYSE: TUP  ) is reaching into its corporate bowl for a fresh payout to shareholders. The company has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.62 per share. This will be paid on July 8 to stockholders of record as of June 19. That amount matches the firm's previous distribution, which was paid in early April. Prior to that, Tupperware Brands was rather less generous, handing out $0.36 per share.

Top 5 Companies To Own In Right Now: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Shauna O'Brien]

    Bank of America/Merrill Lynch reported on Tuesday that it has cut its estimates on Caterpillar Inc. (CAT).

    The firm, which currently has a “Neutral” rating on CAT, has lowered estimates on the company through 2015. Analysts currently have a $88 price target on CAT, suggesting a 1% increase from the stock’s current price of $86.88.

    Caterpillar shares were mostly flat during Tuesday morning trading. The stock has been mostly flat YTD.

  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    Even some of the largest players in the railroad industry, including Berkshire Hathaway's Burlington Northern Santa Fe, Union Pacific, and Norfolk Southern, are carefully studying the costs and benefits of converting their freight trains' engines to burn natural gas instead of diesel. BNSF, for instance, is using units from General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) , the biggest manufactures of locomotives in the world, to determine whether it wants to convert some of its trains to run of a mix of natural gas and diesel.

Top Undervalued Stocks For 2014: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Tyler Crowe]

    Even though the country has so much oil, it has struggled to keep up production growth and has asked for outside help. This week, Venezuela has signed financing deals with Chevron (NYSE: CVX  ) , Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) , and Russia's Rosneft that will total $5.6 to expand production. The country hopes to increase production from 3 to 5 million barrels per day by 2015.

  • [By David Smith]

    Another angle
    Without taking hindsight issue with that statement, I'm forced to compare it to the assessment of the same subject on the same day by Schlumberger's (NYSE: SLB  ) CEO Paal Kibsgaard, who observed during his company's call that "... the main concern in North America land remains the pricing, where the downwards trend in drilling, wireline, and coiled tubing seen in the fourth quarter continued in Q1. In addition, we also saw further downward pricing pressure on a number of hydraulic fracturing bids during the quarter, adding further uncertainty to the North America land market outlook."�

  • [By Lee Jackson]

    Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) revenue grew 8% year-over-year to $11.18 billion in the second quarter of 2013, fueled by high growth in its international segment. While the company does generate 11% of revenue in the Middle East and Asia, only a prolonged Syrian conflict is expected to dent their strong results. UBS has a $98 price target and the consensus figure is at $96. Stockholders are paid a 1.5% dividend.

Friday, November 8, 2013

Should I Buy DTV? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

Twitter Logo LinkedIn Logo RSS Logo Jonathan Berr Popular Posts: If John Malone Doesn’t Buy Time Warner Cable, Someone Else WillHLF – There Is Plenty to Like About ‘Boring’ Herbalife StockMSO Is Crap, New CEO Unlikely to Help Recent Posts: Should I Buy DTV? 3 Pros, 3 Cons If John Malone Doesn’t Buy Time Warner Cable, Someone Else Will HLF – There Is Plenty to Like About ‘Boring’ Herbalife Stock View All Posts

DirecTV (DTV) has made some of the funniest commercials in recent memory, and after the company's most recent earnings report, it's laughing all the way to the bank.

DirecTV, DTV, DTV stockThe largest satellite television provider reported an awesome quarter. Net income at DTV surged 24% to $699 million, or $1.28 per shares, easily beating the $1 per share consensus. Revenue spiked more than 6% to $7.88 billion, surpassing analysts’ $7.88 billion estimates.

DirecTV added 139,000 new subscribers in the quarter — the most since 2011, thanks to refugees from Time Warner Cable (TWC) and CBS (CBS) fee dispute. Time Warner, the second-largest cable company, was the clear loser in the two-week blackout. It lost 304,000 video customers in the quarter, almost double what analysts expected.

DTV has jumped almost 30% this year, on par with peers like Dish Network (DISH) and Comcast (CMCSA). One reason for DTV’s outperformance has been its strong international business and its satisfied customers. During the most recent quarter, DirecTV’s churn rate fell to 1.61% — its lowest quarterly churn in more than 6 years.

So, is now the time for investors to tune into DTV’s stock? Let’s examine the pros and cons.

DTV Pros

Happy customers: For years, DTV and its rival DISH have scored higher than their cable rivals on customer satisfaction surveys. Happy customers tend to be loyal customers, meaning that it will take more than a promotional rate to get them to leave DTV. It also means that they may be less tempted to “cut the cord” or quit pay television entirely.

Valuation: Shares of DTV trade at forward earnings multiple of 12.9, well under Dish’s 30.4 valuation and Comcast’s 19.1 valuation. The stock trades about 6% under its average 52-week price target of $68.04, while Dish trades about 3% under its average target of $49.73. Comcast, though, still has a 25% upside for its $53.74 target. But comparing CMCSA with DTV and DISH has its limits since the Philadelphia-based cable company also owns the entertainment giant NBC Universal.

Dish Merger: Earlier this year, Billionaire John Malone, the largest shareholder of DTV, has urged his counterpart at DISH Charlie Ergen to merge the two satellite providers “for the good of the industry.” Ergen, who is no slouch in the dealmaking department either, reportedly has his eye on a deal with Time Warner Cable. The potential of a DTV-DISH alliance should give the shares a boost, at least until the next shoe drops in the constantly changing world of Pay TV.

DTV Cons

Best Stocks To Watch Right Now

Costs: Costs for original content seem to be soaring by the millisecond. Of particular concern to DTV shareholder is the company’s NFL Sunday Ticket program. The satellite provider’s $1 billion contract with the NFL expires in two years, and retaining that business won’t be cheap. Officials in the NFL are certainly keeping their options opened and have recently met with Google. As I argued before, NFL Sunday Ticket is such huge deal for DTV that it could force a “shotgun wedding” with DISH so it can gain the scale to counter the threat posed by the search engine giant.

Latin America: The company has been growing like gangbusters in Latin America in recent years, but it might nearing a cap. As of September 30, DTV had 11.3 million customers in the region, an increase of 260,000 from a year earlier. That number might seem like a big bump, but it's down from 543,000 a year earlier. This may not be a temporary hiccup, either: The International Monetary Fund recently lowered its forecast for the region’s economic growth to 2.7% for 2013.

Television Watching: In 2011, many people were shocked to learn that number of TV householders — defined by Nielsen as homes having at least one television set — fell for the first time in 20 years. The number rebounded slightly this year to 115.6 million, though it still lags 2010′s 115.9 figure. What this shows is the consumers increasingly want to consume media on their terms, which is going to create huge challenges for the pay TV industry going forward.

DTV Bottom Line

DirecTV has many challenges ahead. Not only is growth in Latin America slowing, but content costs and carriage fees continue to skyrocket. The fights between content providers and distributors are only going to get nastier over time. And then there's the uncertainty over DTV's lucrative NFL programing.

So should you buy DTV? No. For now, the stock's risks outweigh the rewards .

As of this writing, Jonathan Berr didn’t hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.